Trevor Lawrence led all QBs in first-read throw rate in 2022 (75.0%), 2023 (77.3%), and 2024 (76.1%), and is now at a new career-high of 79.6% this year. His league-low 57.2 passer rating when targeting his first read indicates defenses are well aware of his proclivity.
Trevor Lawrence:
+ dead-last in hero throw rate (0.0%) + bottom-5 in turnover-worthy throw rate (12.5%) + bottom-10 in catchable throw rate on balls thrown 10+ yards in the air (62.5%)
To add insult to injury he's faced pressure on only 18.3% of his dropbacks.
Jaguars Defense vs:
Run/Pass/Pts.Allowed/Overall 4th-17th-5th-10th
I like the 49ers 24-13 over the Jaguars!
#49ers inactives CB Renardo Green (neck) DL CJ West (hand) WR Jordan Watkins (calf) WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling RB Jordan James LB Nick Martin
This is a home game against the Jaguars the 9ers should win! My concern is, the 9ers may be looking ahead to the Rams on Thurs. and come out flat, giving Jax the lead?
ReplyDeleteToo many vets and ingrained culture for that to happen imho.
DeleteI hope you're right!
DeleteI'm more concerned about Purdy's toe injury. Any awkward step could re-agrevate this type of injury. Fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteI'm excited to see Jefferson get some snaps. He's strong and quick. Can control double teams and peak in the backfield.
ReplyDeleteHave a bad feeling about this game. With Green out, our Secondary and Luter(?) will be targeted.
ReplyDeleteKey will be CMC against their best linebacker, who is above average. Expecting Purdy to be rusty, first game back.
A DE that should get a chance to step up and help out the D, after Bosa torn his ACL, is Sam Okuayinonu.
ReplyDelete* DE Yetur Gross-Matos has been a disappointment! After battling a knee injury for the first 3 weeks of the 2025 season, he's contributed little in his 2nd season with the 9ers. His playing time has been limited, and his statistics reflect that minimal on-field presence.
Kyle Shanahan is his worst enemy, and CMC won't last more than 10 or 11 games at this usage rate. Remember the days when Kyle had speedy RB's who could actually execute his outside zone scheme? I don't know what this run blocking scheme is, but it's TRASH, and that's 100% on Kyle!
ReplyDelete100% ? Players don’t matter?
DeleteOf course they do. These players were handpicked by Kyle to run this abomination of a run blocking scheme. Where's Guerendo? This is what Kyle does. He's sooo rigid, as soon as a guy struggles a bit, Kyle simply ghosts him, to the detriment of his team. Where's Jordan James? I know he's healthy. Who would imagine that adding a little speed to this rushing attack just might make a difference? The problem is a COMBINATION of scheme and personnel, and who's in charge of both? And like I said, Kyle's going to run CMC into the ground before we get to Thanksgiving!
DeleteNonsense.
DeleteLarry Kreuger said during the week you could tell BP's toe is still bothering him by how many of his passes were sailing high as he couldn't drive his foot into the ground. Looks like he was right.
ReplyDeleteCoaches and players are intertwined. They both need to do their jobs well. Right now, Purdy and the Oline need to do his job well.
ReplyDeleteWith 1:59 left to halftime, the 9ers need a TD.
ReplyDeleteA field goal is better than nothing, but a missed opportunity!
ReplyDeletePurdy may have an excuse for sub-par play. But may Niners players appear to be sleepwalking thru this game.
ReplyDeleteLynch better trade for a pass rusher. Salah is not being able to put any pressure with his 4-man rushes.
49ers need to play with more heart and focus in the 2nd half. I agree Mood, sleepwalking through the 1st half.
ReplyDeleteNice fightback....half time speech seems to be working.
ReplyDeleteAll we need now is a T-Law INT....you can do this my dude!
The tide has turned. Go Niners.
ReplyDeleteNot so fast unfortunately....I thought Purdy would be rusty. But he is having a bad game. Need D to hold them to 3 points.
DeleteIs Mac available in the 4th Qtr? Sheesh.
DeleteAnd it’s turn again.
ReplyDeleteOur S.T. suck once again. 3rd straight S,T. coordinator who stinks or is it something about the way KS handles his S.T.?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn’t go that far but special teams is still the weak link.
DeleteHard to win with so many dropped passes and harder still with 3 turnovers.
ReplyDeleteI can't wait to hear Kyle gaslight the reporters and fanbase in the post game pressor. Remember, we are all stupid compared to Kyle, when it comes to football, so let's all hope that the beat writers don't ask dumb questions about how it's now a GIVEN that Kyle's 49ers will rank dead last in Special Teams again this season! And whatever they do, I sure hope the beat writers don't ask any questions regarding Kyle's predictable play-calling on the money downs. The ball HAS TO GO TO CMC's, it's written in the Constitution!
ReplyDeleteI think I’ve heard all this nonsense before but from a different name. Lol
DeleteTyler james
DeleteKyle is living rent free in your head dude...ENJOY!
The 49ers better not bring this effort against the Rams on Thursday or things will get ugly very quick.
ReplyDeleteThat said. I like the play of Jennings and Rick P today. This game is definitely not over, yet.
Amazingly after that circus, we are still one T-Law INT away from winning this. :)
ReplyDeletePurdy has to let go of the ball faster.
ReplyDeleteIncredibly sloppy performance. Deserved to lose.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteYes, terrible performance. they just need to throw the game film into the round file and get ready for Thursday.
DeleteAmazing that the Niners were still in it until TO#4
ReplyDelete+1
ReplyDeleteWith all DUE RESPECT, there are a number of reasons the 9ers lost today. Too many starters on IR, too many playing injured, too many turnovers (four), an 86 yard Jaguar kickoff return and the 9ers can't run the ball!
ReplyDeleteA) Scooters post on Larry Kruger's comment: How many of BP's passes were sailing high as he can't drive his foot into the ground,
was prescient!
B) Bosa's ACL injury. Just one of many 9er players injured, but the
injury the 9er defense is unable to overcome. No Pass rush!
C) the O-line: Has struggled to open up running lanes for CMC, while
the team's passing game has thrived. But with both 9er QB's hurt, BP's toe and Mac's knee (plc), Jax D was able to control both.
D) Regardless of the reasons, looking ahead to the Rams on Thurs., too many injuries, or 4 turnovers, the 9ers struggled with too many
mistakes and too many missed opportunities.
E) On Thur. 10/02, the 9ers play the Rams at SoFi ON TURF. With
BP's turf toe, should KS start Mac, or run the risk of reinjuring BP's and no choice but start MAC against TB on 10/12?
I think that the Jaguars defense could become a big story this season. One thing is for sure, they weren't a joke today. They may be just a player away from playing in the post-season. Lawrence also seems to be making good progress.
ReplyDeleteMost of the time Trent Williams wasn't even trying to stonewall the bull rusher at the LOS. Instead he would nitially either retreat or cushion himself against the shock. Maybe that's all he's got. It was fun to watch him all these years.
ReplyDeleteLet me guess: First and goal, how about a handoff to CMC up the gut for zilch. Oh wait, we even changed things and ran Robinson!!
Oh and Bourne stinks.
I think the offense will be fine with Kittle and maybe even Watkins eventually.
I heard Kreuger talk about the toe and high passes in practice, so I wasn't too upset. I do think Brock made poor decisions
I have been reading most of the "insiders" the first three games. Kreuger was the only one pointing out Purdy's high toe-related throws in practice. Most have said that the guard play has been poor, hopefully because they're playing injured, although we don't know about Colby. So that could be temporary. But only Dieter and Hutch have been saying that Farell's run blocking has been abysmal. That surprised me.
ReplyDeleteWonder why Russell Gage isn't playing instead of Bourne. If it's because he's a poor blocker, then maybe it's time to deemphasize that component of the WR play.
This is why I've been concerned about the lingering effects of Purdy's toe injury.
ReplyDeletePer Niner Wire, (this morning).
"Shanahan stated that Purdy complained of toe soreness this morning, and that they'll need to evaluate the issue throughout the day. With the quick turnaround on Thursday, there's a chance that the 49ers decide to let Purdy rest and give either Mac Jones (who is also injured) or Adrian Martinez the start against the Los Angeles Rams."
Yeah, I was surprised he played given Larry K's comments during the week. 3-0 start gave them some buffer. Nothing will completely derail their season faster than Purdy being out for a lot of time due to reinjuring the toe.
DeleteInjuries are just wreaking this season. Both QBs are injured as well as our top 2 receivers, not to mention all the other injured players.
ReplyDeleteAnd who's responsible for this wreck of a season, Felix?
DeleteIf there is any consolation it's that aside from Bosa all injured players will be back in a few weeks. All they have to do is hold the line until then.
ReplyDeleteShanahan is saying that both Pearsall and Jennings aren't a sure thing to play on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThe way the NFL schedules these Thursday night games is ridiculous. The NFL is a greedy cash cow that does not care about their players. A three day gap between games does little to allow teams to prepare for both game planning and physically.
I dont see any other reason for a Thursday game except to line the pockets of the NFL coffers and their media associates.